The Game is not yet over

By M Alam Brohi

The National Assembly and the remaining two Provincial Assemblies of Balochistan and Sindh have been dissolved and Mr Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, a little known politician and Senator from Balochistan has taken over as the Caretaker Prime Minister with the curtain falling on the coalition regime of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). However, the political uncertainty that prevailed throughout the 16-month rule of the PDM regime is yet far from clear. The nation is gripped by a growing anxiety whether the general elections will be held within the constitutionally mandated timeline or the rule of the caretakers extended beyond 90 days. The mainstream political parties continue to fear the persistent Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) popularity in the masses.

The PDM presided over a fascist regime unparalleled in the history of Pakistan unleashing tyranny of fabricated criminal cases, oppressive arrests and torture of the PTI leaders and activists. Their fascism peaked after the unfortunate events of 9 May. Before the sunset of their power, they made it a point to have the PTI chairman convicted and jailed. On Saturday 5 August, the PTI chairman, as widely expected, was convicted in Toshakhana case, disqualified for public office and lodged in Attock Jail.The Additional Session Judge, Humayun Dilawar presiding over the trial court seemed to be in unusual haste. He reserved the judgement after in the late morning, and pronounced the 30-page verdict in the early afternoon, and flew to London in the evening for a pre-arranged judicial course. This Herculean task, he performed within a few hours.

The political opponents of the PTI chairman display a state of triumphalism. They think that the game for PTI is over. They are wrong. The game is not yet over. Disregarding the political history of this country, they have the delusion that the arrest of its chairman would quicken the disintegration of the PTI already battered by the desertion of some political heavy weights. They think the core committee appointed by Imran Khan under Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi would not be able to provide leadership to the party in the forthcoming general elections. One can fairly presume that they see their electoral triumph in the political death of the country’s most popular party and its chairman.

The judicial battle has just started. Admittedly, the dice are fully loaded against Imran Khan with his problems compounding not least because of corruption or any wrong doing but owing to his dogged refusal to bow to the will of the powerful. The role of the judiciary has become crucial in this saga of constitutional battle. These are, indeed, momentous times for the superior courts, the leadership of PTI particularly that of the core committee supposed to steer the party out of choppy waters. If history is any guide, the security establishment, notwithstanding momentary successes, has never triumphed in upending a popular party’s deep roots in the populace.  Our people have more steadfastly stood by the real or perceived victims of the state’s coercive power.

This happened in case of Awami League, National Awami Party, Pakistan People’s Party, and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. Why should the beleaguered PTI be an exceptional case in this historic pattern? The Awami League, journeying on a thorny path, emerged as the biggest political party of the country in the general elections of 1970. After the elections, we used the state force to keep it out of power that resulted in the breakup of the country. The PPP survived the onslaught of the powerful from 1977-1986 and acquired power in 1988, 1993 and 2008. The dismissal of the of the National Awami Party government of Sardar Attaullah Mengal in Balochistan in February 1973 that triggered the resignation of the NAP provincial administration in KP, seriously dented Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s standing as people’s leader.

Not least Bhutto, the establishment had problems with Sardar Attaullah Mengal because of the wholesome repatriation of the officers and officials from Punjab appointed en mass during the one-unit in Balochistan. After the abolition of the one-unit, these officers, as a matter of principle, had to go to their original province. The PML-N incurred the wrath of the powerful whenever Mian Nawaz Sharif asserted his position as the elected leader of the country. It survived the political gerrymandering and regained power in 1996 and 2013.

Why should we expect an overwhelming change in the electoral mood of the populace? During its 15-month hybrid rule, the PDM leaders presided over unprecedented inflation, economic hardships, rising poverty index, political chaos, and abnormal rather disgusting political witch-hunt. Even after the release of the first tranche of the IMF standby loan, the economic conditions in the country have not shown any sign of improvement. The tough IMF conditions resulting in the massive increase in the prices of petrol and the petroleum products and utilities combined with the worsening stagflation and shrinking incomes, the common man will be facing very hard days by the time the country goes into elections.

The PDM leaders made many unsuccessful attempts to evolve a political narrative to dent the PTI popularity. They had conflicting political interests at play in the coalition pulling the motley crowd in different directions. The dissension between the hawks and doves in the PML-N has been too perplexing to the party’s followers. The PPP owned the coalition regime and not the PDM. The PTI narrative depicting its loss of political power as the consequence of a foreign conspiracy, and the PDM rule as foreign-sponsored has remained unbeaten striking a resonant chord with the young voters forming over 65 per cent of the population. The mysterious leak of the cypher contents by a New York media outlet has vindicated the PTI chairman.

The PTI chairman’s narrative about the corruption of the top PDM leadership, supported by the vast literature in the international print and electronic media has been immutably concretized in the public perception. They would have to live with this sticking stigma. Even their political heirs would bear the brunt of their egregious reputation. Though they managed to clear themselves from many corruption cases, the way they tampered with the accountability laws and manipulated the NAB and FIA makes their acquittals highly doubtful.

While in power, they failed to dig out serious cases of corruption involving the PTI chairman and his ministers except the so called Toshakhana and the Al-Qadir University cases. We should salute Shahid Khaqan Abbassi telling us candidly that all rulers have plundered the Toshakhana, why only chairman PTI is singled out. The Al-Qadir University case has been dumped by the accountability bureau itself. Now they are crying hoarse about Farah Gogi.

The PDM has squandered all its political assets. They are destined for electoral humiliation. However, all depends on how courageously the PTI leaders withstand the ongoing state coercion. It will not be easy for the powers that may be to stretch the caretakers’ rule beyond the constitutionally mandated period. What we can predict at this stage is that the election results would be engineered to have a hung parliament and a weak coalition government beholden to the powerful quarters paving the way for another spell of political and economic instability in the country.

God may bless our land.

The writer is a senior analyst, author and former ambassador. He can be reached at brohialam7@gmail.com

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